التنبؤ بالفشل المالي في البنوك التجارية باستخدام نموذجي ألتمان وكيدا

Abstract

t the role of financial distress prediction models in the Arab Banking Corporation (ABC), by applying the Altman and Kida models. The Altman model relies on four financial indicators: liquidity, profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. Meanwhile, the Kida model is based on five financial ratios: profitability, leverage, immediate liquidity, activity, and general liquidity. The study utilized financial data extracted from the balance sheets and income statements of the Arab Banking Corporation during the period (2019 - 2024), employing both a descriptive-analytical approach and a case study methodology. Evaluation was conducted by applying the financial indicators to the models, and the study revealed a discrepancy in the obtained results. Altman Model: Showed difficulty in assessing the bank's financial position, as the Z-score during the studied years ranged between 1.21 and 2.6. This places the bank in a "grey zone" (uncertain state), necessitating further detailed studies and a comprehensive analysis to determine its financial standing. The Kida Model: Demonstrated the ability to provide more accurate results, yielding positive scores across all years of the study. This indicates that the bank is in a good, stable financial position and is well away from financial distress.