أثر التحيزات الادراكية و العاطفية على عوائد الأسهم و تقلباتها الشرطية

Abstract

This study aims to measure the impact of cognitive and emotional biases on the behaviour and fluctuation of stock yields Police on the Paris Stock Exchange, by tracking the CAC40 index during the period from January 2000 to December 2025. This study falls within the framework of behavioural finances that seeks to understand the psychological effects of investors on the movement of financial markets. The research relied on a set of standard models, most notably the autoregression beam model (VAR), and the single-variate and multi-variate GARCH models (DCC-GARCH). The study variables were represented in cognitive biases (overconfidence), emotional biases (investor morale on the one hand, and index returns and conditional fluctuations on the other hand. The study found a statistically significant negative dynamic relationship between overconfidence and the returns of the CAC 40 index, and the results also revealed the impact of investor sentiment on conditional fluctuations.