أثر سعر الصرف على فاتورة الواردات الغذائية في الجزائر

Abstract

This study aims to measure the effect of the exchange rate and the global food price index on Algeria's food import bill over the period 2007–2024, using quarterly data covering 72 observations. To achieve this objective, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was employed as the most appropriate econometric tool for testing the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks, distinguishing between episodes of dinar depreciation and appreciation. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test was additionally applied to account for structural breaks in the time series. The significance of this study stems from addressing a clear research gap, namely the absence of Algerian studies that analyze the food import bill specifically using nonlinear methodologies and recent quarterly data, within an economic context characterized by structural dependence on food imports and heightened sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations and international food price volatility.