أثر سعر الصرف على النمو الاقتصادي في الجزائر

Abstract

The study aimed to identify the impact of the exchange rate on economic growth in Algeria, using annual data covering the period (1990 – 2024). To achieve this objective, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was employed. The empirical results showed that the exchange rate has statistically significant effects and negatively influences economic growth. However, the lagged effects of this variable may differ depending on the direction of the shock (positive or negative) in the short term, reflecting the complexity of the relationship between these factors and the asymmetry of economic response. In the long term, the results indicated that negative exchange rate shocks have a significant negative effect on economic growth, while positive shocks did not show any statistically significant impact, suggesting that the Algerian economy is more sensitive to negative fluctuations in the exchange rate than to positive ones.