أثر الاستثمار في قطاع الزراعة على النمو الاقتصادي باستخدام نموذج ARDL

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of agricultural investment on economic growth (Gross Domestic Product - GDP) in Algeria over the period 1997–2023. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach, the study incorporates dummy variables to account for structural breaks identified via the Bai-Perron test. Annual data were gathered from official sources, and the results confirm a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables, as validated by the Maki (2012) cointegration test. Empirically, the findings reveal a statistically significant negative long-term impact of agricultural investment on GDP. Conversely, agricultural wages exhibit a significant positive relationship with growth. In the short term, however, the positive impact of agricultural investment appears with a time lag of one to two years. Finally, the Error Correction Term (ECT) is negative and statistically significant, indicating an adjustment speed toward equilibrium of approximately 0.387 (31 months( Résumé :