Les changements climatiques et la résilience socio-écologique dans les Hautes Plaines Sétifiènnes

Abstract

Over the past decades, the Setif High Plains (HPS) region has been significantly affected by climate change, causing economic, social, and environmental impacts on agriculture, health, industry, as well as on natural, urban, and peri-urban environments. This situation highlights the need to strengthen socio-ecological resilience in order to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study proposes an integrated, multi-scale analysis of the socio-ecological vulnerability and resilience of the region, based on a mixed-methods approach. Climate trends observed between 1980 and 2021 were assessed using the Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho, and Theil-Sen statistical tests, revealing a significant increase in annual temperatures (0.023–0.03 °C/year) and a slight, statistically non-significant decrease in precipitation. Territorial vulnerability, estimated through an index applied to municipalities, shows spatial disparity and an overall score of 0.44, corresponding to a moderate level. The ecological resilience of the forested massifs of Djebel Youcef and Djebel Boutaleb (1984–2022) is evaluated as high, with respective scores of 2.96 and 2.49, reflecting an ecological dynamic supported by biological, structural, and functional diversity conducive to ecosystem adaptation. The survey of local populations indicates a good understanding of climate issues and a willingness to adopt eco-friendly practices, despite the territorial limitations in absorbing environmental disturbances. Overall, the HPS region combines moderate territorial vulnerability with robust ecological resilience, offering a strategic profile for the development of adaptation policies and sustainable natural resource management