أثر سعر الصرف على الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر في الجزائر باستخدام نموذج NARDL

Abstract

This study aimed to measure the impact of the exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Algeria during the period 1990-2024. To achieve this objective, a standard approach was used, namely the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, which allows for the analysis of the asymmetric impact of positive and negative exchange rate shocks, with the inflation rate included as a mediating variable. The study found a long-run equilibrium relationship (cointegration) between the exchange rate and foreign direct investment. and the results of the Wald test demonstrated an asymmetry in the impact of positive and negative exchange rate shocks in both the short and long terms, where positive shocks (a depreciation of the dinar) and negative shocks (an appreciation of the dinar) negatively affect FDI inflows in the long term, whereas in the short term, positive shocks had a negative effect on FDI, while negative shocks had no significant effect.