قياس التضخم الأساسي في الجزائر

Abstract

This study aims to examine the phenomenon of inflation in Algeria by relying on the measurement of core inflation over the period extending from 2015 to 2025. In its theoretical component, the study addressed the fundamental concepts related to inflation and core inflation, showing that core inflation constitutes a more stable indicator than headline inflation, given that it excludes the most volatile components from the consumer price basket. This makes it a more accurate and reliable analytical tool for detecting underlying inflationary pressures and tracking long-term inflation trends. The study also reviewed the most important methods used to measure core inflation, namely the exclusion-based method, trimmed means, and the weighted median, noting that each method is characterized by a set of advantages and limitations that make its suitability dependent on the nature and characteristics of the economy under study. On the applied side, two core inflation indices were constructed using the exclusion-based method, and were then compared to the headline inflation index through the analysis and comparison of measures of central tendency and measures of dispersion. The results of the comparison of central tendency measures showed that the exclusion process did not substantially affect the general trend of inflation, but rather its effect was primarily reflected in the degree of volatility of the indices. The results further indicated that the core inflation index excluding the food component recorded the lowest levels of dispersion compared to the other indices, making it more capable of reflecting the underlying or persistent trend of inflation. Similarly, the analysis of dispersion measures revealed a notable decrease in their values for both core inflation indices compared to the headline inflation index, which confirms the effectiveness of the exclusion methodology in limiting the impact of temporary shocks and transitory factors, and reinforces the capacity of core inflation indices to reflect the true and sustainable trajectory of inflation in the Algerian economy.